Midterm elections have historically punished incumbent presidents, but energy prices amplify that effect. Michael A. Mische, associate professor at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, examined how gasoline costs shaped electoral outcomes across decades.
The 2026 midterm election saw Republicans lose control of Congress after gasoline prices reached their highest levels of any previous election cycle. Gasoline prices rose nearly 40% from February to November 2026, climbing from $2.98 to $4.15 per gallon, following U.S. military action against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, that disrupted oil tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mische traced this pattern through presidential history. In 1974, after Arab OPEC members cut oil production and imposed an embargo following the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, crude oil prices jumped 184% from $4.31 to $10.31 per barrel within months. U.S. gasoline prices rose 32%. Gerald Ford's Republicans lost 48 House seats and five Senate seats in that year's midterms, despite Ford's "Whip Inflation Now" campaign.
Jimmy Carter faced similar headwinds. Gas prices remained high through his first term starting in 1977, reaching twice their 1976 levels by the 1980 election. Inflation hit 9% in 1978, contributing to Democrats losing 15 House and three Senate seats that midterm year. Carter lost his reelection bid to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
During Donald Trump's first term, crude prices rose 24% and gasoline prices increased 22% between January 2017 and October 2018. Republicans lost 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
In June 2022, under President Joe Biden, inflation reached 9.1%, a 40-year high, and gasoline hit an all-time nominal high of $4.929 per gallon. Biden had released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in March 2022, which the Treasury Department suggested prevented gasoline price increases of $0.17 to $0.42 per gallon. Still, Democrats lost nine House seats and one Senate seat in that year's midterms.
Over 60% of the world's crude oil travels by ocean tankers, with 20% of global supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making global supply disruptions consequential for U.S. prices. When energy prices spike, food and other prices follow, raising overall inflation. Voters pay attention to those changes and become less likely to support incumbents.