A person's likelihood of voting depends partly on how much their political views differ from those of their neighbors, according to research published in the Canadian Journal of Political Science.
The study, led by researchers including Daniel Rubenson, Roosmarijn de Geus, Benjamin Allen Stevens and Peter John Loewen, analyzed survey data from more than 31,000 Canadians during the 2015 federal election. Researchers compared each person's positions on 37 specific policy issues, including taxes, health care and immigration, with the average views in their riding.
The findings show a nonlinear pattern. A person whose views closely match their riding's average has a predicted 83% chance of voting. Those whose views differ moderately have the highest likelihood, at 90%. People whose views differ most extensively from their neighbors have a predicted 63% chance, though this estimate is less precise.
The researchers account for factors including age, education, income, how close local races were and campaign intensity. Even after controlling for these variables, the relationship between disagreement and voting remained.
The researchers suggest that when political views match those around us, politics can feel settled and voting may seem unnecessary. Moderate disagreement makes political differences visible and the ballot choice feel more important. Extensive disagreement, however, can feel socially uncomfortable and confusing, potentially discouraging voting.
The study covers one election in Canada's system. The researchers note that stated intentions to vote, shown in the survey, may differ from actual voting behavior. They plan to test whether these findings held in the 2025 Canadian federal election.