New study: Children who grow up in poverty are 5 times more likely to be poor young adults

Roger Wilkins and Esperanza Vera-Toscano from UNSW Sydney analyzed data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to track poverty persistence from childhood into early adulthood. Their study, published in The Economic Record, examined 2,205 people and found that those who grew up below the poverty line faced a 27% risk of living in poverty between ages 24 and 35, compared with just 5% for those who grew up in households earning 150 to 200% of the poverty line. This represents more than five times the risk.

The researchers defined poverty using relative income adjusted for household size. For 2022-23, this placed the poverty line at about A$72,000 for a couple with two children and about $55,000 for a single parent with two children. Children in near-poverty (100 to 150% of the poverty line) also showed elevated risk, with an 8.7 percentage-point higher poverty rate in early adulthood than the reference group.

Single-parent families showed particularly persistent poverty. In 2022-23, 37% of children in single-parent families lived in poverty, compared with 11% in partnered families. Australia has 1.2 million single-parent families. A 2025 Swinburne University survey of 2,590 Australian single parents found 78% of single mothers spent "a lot" or "almost all" of their time worrying about or planning for their family's financial well-being.

The researchers examined educational attainment, employment, partnering rates, and health as possible explanations for poverty persistence. People from more disadvantaged households were less likely to complete postsecondary qualifications, secure employment, or live with a partner. However, even accounting for these factors, the association between childhood poverty and early-adulthood poverty remained substantial.

Wilkins and Vera-Toscano suggest policies reducing poverty in families with children, particularly low-income single-parent families, could deliver lasting benefits. In 2023, the Albanese government extended the Parenting Payment (Single) until the youngest child turns 14, expected to help at least 57,000 single primary caregivers, who were mostly women.