Researchers modeled cost-effective pathways for China to reach carbon neutrality using hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives as green energy carriers alongside renewables and electrification.
The study, published in Nature, examined China's entire energy economy across 29 provincial regions. Researchers incorporated high-resolution renewable deployments, hourly power system operations, and over 46,000 rail, road, marine, and pipeline transfer routes for hydrogen derivatives. They analyzed fuel adoption strategies across all end-use sectors.
According to the model, adding hydrogen and derivatives to China's transition reduces overall costs by $10.7 trillion compared with pathways using only renewables and electrification. The hydrogen-based transition achieves negative carbon abatement costs of $-6.15 per ton, meaning it generates economic value while reducing emissions.
The analysis found that hydrogen derivatives eliminate the need for external oil imports. The researchers estimate this savings equals over 50 percent of China's trade surplus at 2023 levels. The transition also boosts employment and economic growth.
The work addresses obstacles hydrogen faces in real-world deployment, including costly transportation, storage, and fuel-cell adoption. The researchers note that China, as the world's largest CO2 emitter, must balance variable renewable energy accommodation with decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like industry and heavy transport.