New Zealand's preliminary election results show an 11-seat overhang, expanding parliament from 120 to 131 seats. This is the largest overhang since the mixed member proportional (MMP) system began in 1996.
The overhang occurs because parties can win more electorate seats than their proportional party vote entitles them to receive. Te Pāti Māori won just 0.6% of the party vote but leads in five of seven Māori roll electorates, creating a four-seat overhang. National has a seven-seat overhang.
Right-wing parties (National, ACT, NZ First) hold 67 seats against the 66 needed for a majority. Left-wing parties (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori) hold 57 seats. The centrist Opportunity Party holds seven seats with 6.0% of the party list vote.
National's party vote of 29.2% trailed Labour's 29.4%, yet National leads in 42 of 71 electorate seats compared to Labour's 21. Election analyst Adrian Beaumont noted that the right has over-performed pre-election polls. He expects the right's lead to narrow after final results are published on November 27.
Two electorates remain extremely close. National leads in Hamilton East by 456 votes and Wairarapa by 139 votes. If National loses both, the right would hold only 65 of 129 seats.