Researchers have recalculated the economic and health benefits of covid-19 vaccines, finding they may have delivered between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion in returns during their first year, nearly double an earlier estimate. The $79.4 billion investment in vaccine development and delivery produced these returns across 173 countries.
The new analysis came after peer review led to methodological changes. Hallie Benjamin at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and colleagues originally used the Value of Statistical Life Years but switched to the Value of Statistical Life, which treats lifespans more equally, Benjamin said. Mark Jit at New York University, part of the research team, noted this approach aligns with standard recommendations for valuing mortality-risk reductions.
The lower estimate of $6.43 trillion reflects a cost-effectiveness analysis commonly used in health sectors and includes quality-of-life factors. The higher $64.3 trillion reflects a cost-benefit analysis used in the public sector. For every dollar spent on vaccine development, returns ranged from $59.70 to $809 in that first year.
The researchers modelled that vaccines prevented 14 million to 20 million deaths in their first year. They also calculated avoided hospitalizations, productivity losses, and healthcare costs across the 173 countries studied.
Benefits were not equally distributed globally. Jit said richer countries saw higher returns, likely because poorer nations accessed vaccines later, resulting in fewer lives saved and fewer productivity and healthcare costs averted.
Richard Carpiano at the University of California, Riverside, said the findings challenge assumptions made during the pandemic about trade-offs between protecting public health and protecting the economy. He called the analysis "fundamental" to policy decisions and noted the probability of another pandemic within the next decade is significant.
The study was published in PLOS Medicine.