The World Cup was meant to be carbon-neutral. FIFA hasn’t released the figures, so we built a computer model to check

Researchers created a computational model to estimate the carbon footprint of the 2026 FIFA World Cup after the organization failed to release official emissions data, settling a debate between FIFA's carbon-neutrality claims and environmental groups' disaster predictions.

The 2026 World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, prompted FIFA to commit to carbon neutrality through the bid process. However, the organization has not published detailed emissions figures needed to verify this pledge. Green advocacy groups countered that the tournament's scale, involving international travel for fans and athletes plus massive infrastructure development, would generate substantial greenhouse gas emissions.

Without access to FIFA's internal calculations, researchers employed computer modeling to estimate total emissions. Their approach examined multiple factors: flights for fans traveling from around the globe, player and staff transportation, stadium operations, construction for new venues, and accommodation for visitors. The model incorporated actual data on international travel patterns, energy sources in host countries, and typical event-related consumption.

The modeling results reveal the actual emissions picture falls between FIFA's optimistic projections and environmental groups' most alarming forecasts. The tournament will generate significant carbon emissions, though perhaps not the catastrophic levels some critics predicted.

FIFA's failure to transparently report emissions data undermines public accountability. The organization could have provided verified figures through third-party auditing, allowing independent assessment of their carbon-neutrality claims. Instead, researchers had to reverse-engineer estimates using computational methods.

The 2026 World Cup demonstrates a broader problem in major event management. Organizations make environmental commitments during bidding but often lack rigorous monitoring and public disclosure mechanisms. Without transparent reporting standards, verifying claims about sustainability becomes nearly impossible for outside observers. The research highlights the need for mandatory, standardized emissions reporting for international sporting events, allowing comparison across tournaments and holding host organizations accountable to their environmental pledges.