Thwaites glacier in Antarctica is approaching a critical tipping point. The floating ice shelf attached to the world's widest glacier is breaking apart, threatening to accelerate sea-level rise globally.
Thwaites already contributes roughly 4 percent of current global sea-level rise despite occupying only 0.1 percent of Antarctic ice. Scientists worry that the glacier's collapse could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing neighboring ice sheets and releasing vastly more water into the oceans.
The ice shelf, which extends from the glacier into the Weddell Sea, acts as a cork holding back the massive glacier behind it. As the shelf fragments and detaches, this natural barrier disappears. The glacier will flow faster into the ocean, dumping more ice and raising sea levels further.
Recent satellite observations and modeling studies show the shelf is already weakening from warm ocean currents eating away at its underside. Fractures widen. Sections collapse. The process accelerates during Antarctic summer months.
Thwaites earned the nickname "doomsday glacier" because of its potential to unleash catastrophic flooding. Complete collapse of Thwaites alone could raise global sea levels by roughly 2 feet. That figure jumps to 10 feet or higher if the glacier's collapse destabilizes the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a connected system of glaciers.
Scientists monitor Thwaites using satellite imagery, ice-piercing radar, and oceanographic instruments. Understanding the glacier's behavior requires international collaboration, particularly through programs like the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration, which combines researchers from the United States, United Kingdom, and other nations.
The timeline remains uncertain. Models suggest the shelf could fully detach within the next five to ten years, though some estimates extend further. Even after detachment, the main glacier body will take decades to fully disintegrate, giving